In 1989, Jim Berkland told the Dispatch a temblor between 3.5

Whenever things start shaking, Jim Berkland’s phone rings off
the hook with folks fishing for some insight on the next big quake.
The 80-year-old retired

maverick

geologist was calm and patient as he reconnected Wednesday
afternoon with the Dispatch from his Glen Ellen home. Berkland said
California had a chance of getting rocked between Saturday and
March 26.

I predict there will be a 3.5 to 7 magnitude quake within 140
miles of Mount Diablo this coming week.

Whenever things start shaking, Jim Berkland’s phone rings off the hook with folks fishing for some insight on the next big quake.

The 80-year-old retired “maverick” geologist was calm and patient as he reconnected Wednesday afternoon with the Dispatch from his Glen Ellen home.

Historically speaking, Berkland said March, April and October are “big earthquake months” and California had a chance of getting rocked between Saturday and March 26.

“We’re there now,” he said Wednesday. “This is the time when people really need to be alert for the possibility or probability of local quakes. I predict there will be a 3.5 to 7 magnitude quake within 140 miles of Mount Diablo this coming week.”

Mount Diablo is located in Contra Costa County in the San Francisco Bay Area.

In 1989, Berkland told a Gilroy Dispatch reporter a temblor between 3.5 and 6.0 would hit the Bay Area region between Oct. 14 and 21. His prediction was published in the Oct. 13, 1989 Dispatch.

Four days later, Loma Prieta hit.

The one thing Berkland emphasized was awareness – not panic.

“For Central California I’m not as concerned as I was before,” he said. “We’ll see what develops in the next few days.”

Susan Garcia, public information specialist for the Earthquake Science Center at the USGS, said Thursday there is a 63 percent chance of a magnitude 6.7 percent or greater earthquake in the Bay Area within the next 30 years.

Garcia said for the San Andreas fault line, which dissects Hecker Pass halfway between Gilroy and Watsonville and sandwiches Santa Clara County with another fault inland, there is a 21 percent chance of a 6.7 magnitude temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault zone, which is situated mainly along the western base of the hills on the east side of San Francisco Bay, has a 31 percent chance, she said.

Garcia added their phone lines have been swamped as well.

“Lots and lots of inquiries,” she said. “The phone hasn’t stopped ringing since last Thursday.”

She also reminded earthquakes aren’t seasonal.

“They can happen any time, any place,” she said. “And here in California, it’s earthquake county. It can happen anywhere.”

Berkland’s public prediction of the devastating 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, also known as the World Series quake, earned him a two-month suspension from his job as a Santa Clara County geologist, but that hasn’t hindered him from doing what he’s most known for: Foreseeing earthquakes.

As for Berkland’s methods, his predictions aren’t based on inklings.

His system takes into account several key variables. This includes reports of abnormal animal behavior such as mass beaching of whales and dolphins and higher numbers of missing cats and dogs, phases of the moon, the tides, changes in well water levels and how earth’s magnetic field is affected by moving tectonic plates .

He pointed out oarfish – deep sea-dwellers also known as “earthquake fish” due to their tendency to surface before powerful temblors – washed up in March 2010 in Japan and December 2010 in Malibu.

Oarfish are long, ribbon-bodied creatures and normally lurk at depths of 1,000 meters. According to some reports, the species are susceptible to movements in seismic fault lines.

Berkland also pointed out during March, the moon would make its closest approach to the earth in the past five years.

However he reminded nothing is for sure, and said he was betting on something “small to moderate.”

“My main role in life is to educate people about what I’ve been learning,” he said, “despite the critics.”

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