"These new ridership projections reinforce the critical role BART will have as a key transportation alternative, enhancing the quality of life for Santa Clara County residents," said Joe Pirzynski, board chairman of the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority and a Los Gatos city councilman.

The new prediction is that the $4.7 billion BART project to San Jose and Mineta San Jose International Airport would be used by 111,000 daily riders by 2030. The last projection, prepared in 2002, predicted 83,000 daily users by 2025.

"It's clear the need for fast, efficient, and effective transit will continue to grow," San Jose Mayor Ron Gonzales said. "These projections confirm that bringing BART to Silicon Valley is essential for our long-term transportation solution that will keep our region both economically competitive and livable for our residents and commuters."

But recent history proves that projections don't always match reality. The ridership predicted for the much-anticipated BART extension to San Francisco International Airport have not materialized.

Planners in San Mateo county first guessed that 54,678 people would ride that train daily, and then made a revised forecast of 40,000. In August 2005, BART to SFO was used by an average of 30,247 riders, a 7.7 percent increase over August 2004.

VTA General Manager Michael Burns said Monday that his agency's prediction will prove more dependable because Interstate 880, the path BART to San Jose would follow from Fremont, is an already congested route that will continue to get worse as the corridor is developed.

"The BART to Silicon Valley extension will provide service to some of the region's most congested corridors and will operate through an area with high growth potential based on regional projections," Michael Burns said.

The new projections were based on growth forecasts prepared by the Association of Bay Area Governments. VTA officials hope the data will help persuade the Federal Transit Authority to recommend the project for federal funding and voters to approve a quarter-cent sales tax that will appear on a ballot in 2006. Without a potential $1 billion in federal funding or a successful sales tax initiative, the VTA won't have the money to build BART.

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